Afghanistan’s post-Nato uncertain future!
-DR. ABDUL RUFF COLACHAL
Afghanistan has now been the battle field of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), floated during the Cold War era ostensibly to contain Soviet empire’s possible annexation of European nations as part of its World War II agenda. USA has proved to its foe Russia and the world at large that NATO will continue to exist as a formidable military force there are new threats and, conversely, if Russia objects, they are capable of creating more threat perceptions and encourage even regional wars, terror attacks. As President Obama ahs decided to wind down the US forces from Afghanistan, he is also wants to ensure that Russia does not make a comeback there as the Red Army had done during the Soviet period, prompting USA to sow poisonous seeds of terrorism in South Asia. .
USA, EU and Russia obviously are a common agenda: containing of growth Islam and reduction of Muslim populations globally. Of course, anti-Islamic nations led by USA under the NATO banner do not invade energy rich Muslim nations to leave them in due course as better nation, economically, politically and morally. Not at all!
Muslim nations are being invaded and their resources squandered, anti-Islamic Satan gangs kill Muslims and loot oil and take control of vital routes. And in occupation the enemies of Islam complete squeezing the energies and blood of Muslims of these countries before they quit, leaving Islamic world , economies, infrastructures too weak to function as sovereign nations.
World unfortunately believes or pretends to be believing all US lies as undisputable facts. Americans claimed one Osama, the strongest human on earth, had gone to USA and, entered airport, took away planes and hit his most favored targets. And, then, Americans still claim, Osama quickly left USA and reached Afghanistan. This essentially folktale narrative worked with the panicked world well because of NATO terror attack s following the Sept-11.
USA and NATO, in fact entire anti-Islamic gang invaded Afghanistan with able help from Pakistan and Arab world. Since Saudi led Arab world and Pakistan, controlled by US super power, are implicit in the NATO crimes in Afghanistan and Pakistan, they refused to open their mouth on the issue.
The fact remains the Sept-11 was a purely US hoax, planned, engineered and executed in perfection in USA. The consequence is the terrorization of entire world with illegal invasion and terror attacks on fictitious Sept-11 charges. Now anti-people capitalism and imperialism are protected by big powers under the slogan of so-called war on terror which essentially meant war on Islam and Muslim populations by the western powers and their allies in East.
USA seems to be satisfied with killing of Afghans for over thirteen years and is now considering withdrawal of most of the troops. Continued presence in Afghanistan of 13,500 US troopers in five military bases has been made possible according to the new definition of that mission in the Bilateral Security Agreement, which has been signed between the governments of Afghanistan and the United States.
From now on, the American forces are supposed to provide the Afghan military with consultation and training without being directly involved in combat operations, unless, of course, under special circumstances and when requested to do so by Afghanistan. However, there are some considerations about the termination of NATO’s combat mission in Afghanistan thirteen years after the country was invaded by Western armies.
As NATO leaves Afghanistan, the ideological and ethnic challenges to power in Afghanistan have been exacerbated and currently exist and the regional and international rivalries within to gain more influence in the country have been intensified. Political and territorial rivalries between India and Pakistan; ideological rivalries among Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey; and rivalries among the United States, China and Russia for gaining more influence in the war-torn country.
US president Barrack Obama, who is lucky to be a special guest of Indian regime to be on Janpath Road New Delhi to watch, for the first time in history, Indian military parade in New Delhi on republic day January 26, claimed NATO’s occupational crimes or what they call “combat mission” in Afghanistan has officially ended, but the United States and other member states of the NATO have not ended their military presence in this country and have only changed its appearance.
At long last, a national unity government has been finally established in Kabul through mediation of the United States and the agreement between the country’s President Ashraf Ghani and the chief executive officer, Dr. Abdullah. However, this has failed to put an end to ethnic and ideological rivalries and there is no end imaginable to such rivalries over the short run. The US view is the new national unity government with certain problems face two different approaches currently and that unity can be only maintained through effective interference of the United States backed by its continued military presence in the country. Rivalries within the Afghan government are, in fact, rivalries between two different ways of thinking and two different approaches to power. There is a traditional ethnic approach which believes that the government and political power is a basic right for the Pashtun ethnic group that is being represented by Ashraf Ghani and which derives its legitimacy from Loya Jirga. Dr. Abdullah seeks ethnic distribution of power in the form of some sort of federalism and non-centralized power structure. He aims to revive the post of prime minister and turn the country’s government from a presidential one into a parliamentary one where the government will gain its legitimacy through ballot boxes, and the national consultative assembly will be an additional source of legitimacy for the government.
Americans, who will control this puppet nation indirectly for years to come, expect further intensification of domestic conflicts in the country, generating a civil war like situation. The most possible turn of events is further escalation of domestic rivalries at a military level between the Taliban militants, on the one hand, and Afghan army, government and security forces, on the other hand. The escalation of conflicts between the Taliban and the central government is actually aimed at gaining more concessions by either side, not at absolute victory of one of these two sides over the other. Victory remains with USA.
Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey are the main contestants which claim to be good models for an Islamic model of power for Afghanistan. These three countries are sure to continue their rivalries in this country. The termination of NATO’s military mission may even add fuel to such ideological rivalries. Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia have agreed to cooperate for the construction of an Islamic center, whose cost has been estimated at 100 million Saudi riyals, and is supposed to accommodate up to 10,000 students on a round the clock basis. The agreement is a clear sign of intensified rivalries between two schools of thought and ideological discourses that are being represented by the Islamic Revolution in Iran and Salafi-Arab school of Saudi Arabia.
India and Pakistan claim be closer to Afghans and hence seek partial control of the nation of Afghans. Like China, India has also pumped a lot of money into Afghanistan and it wants profits from the “investments”. This led to the intensification of political and territorial rivalries between India and Pakistan in Afghanistan as USA refused to hand over any part of Afghanistan to India or Pakistan. That is to say the division of Afghanistan did not take place against background of division of Berlin in the prost WW-II in Afghanistan. The traditional support accorded to Baluch separatist forces in Pakistan by India and New Delhi’s cooperation with Taliban Movement of Pakistan are, in fact, a response to jihadist policies followed by the Pakistani army and are aimed at undermining Pakistan’s standing in Afghanistan. As a result, this situation will certainly lead to intensified rivalries between India and Pakistan in Afghanistan.
The “big game” of the past, which has been raging among major global powers in Afghanistan and Central Asia since the middle of the 19th century, will continue in new forms proportionate to the new conditions in the world. The United States, Russia and China would try to make the most of the geostrategic and geoeconomic position of Afghanistan as a result of which their rivalries may well extend into Central Asia. the termination of NATO’s combat mission in Afghanistan will most probably result in the intensification of rivalries to gain political and economic influence in Afghanistan and gain access to the country’s mineral resources among them. It is quite imaginable that China will try to use its influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan to get more access to the Middle East and energy resources of the Persian Gulf. It will also use the same path to extend its influence into Central Asia and gain access to energy resources of the Caspian Sea. Russia can also use Afghanistan as a route to realize its traditional goal of having access to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean.
The most natural goal for the United States will be to prevent further increase in the influence of China and Russia in Afghanistan and to keep them away from its own security sphere in Central Asia. Therefore, the termination of NATO’s combat mission in Afghanistan will not be a termination of rivalries, but further intensification of those rivalries.
Now, in view of these realities, the main question is in which direction will future Afghanistan move and with what kind of developments it will be possibly faced in the preservation of the fragile unity government? Disintegration of Afghanistan into two new countries, like Pashtunistan and Khorasan is ruled out, at least for the time being. There is no doubt that disintegration of Afghanistan will not be beneficial to any domestic or regional political current and can trigger a crisis of secession across the region. The main issue in this approach is the continued challenge of power and influence. Federalization of the political system and distribution of power along ethnic lines among major ethnic groups such as Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazara people and Uzbeks Continuation of national reconciliation talks with the Taliban after a short period of escalation of conflicts followed by efforts to give a share in the power system to the Taliban in those regions of Afghanistan that are dominated by the Pashtun ethnic group. The Taliban can be also given a share of the central power in Kabul. Will Afghanistan choose continuation of the status quo by promoting the US interests, alongside those of other powers mentioned above?
Under these circumstances, it seems that the most suitable solution for the problems facing Afghanistan is to change the centralized power structure and modify the mentality that power is a historical right of Pashtun people alone. As a result, a model should be adhered to which will distribute power among all ethnic and geographical regions of Afghanistan and allow each ethnic group to be satisfactorily represented in the central government. Non-Pashtun ethnic groups and possibly Russia are certainly concerned about further growth of radicalism in the form of Salafi and jihadist ideology. China, on the other hand, has been already plagued with radical forces in its Muslim dominated Xinjiang province and, to protect its own national “security”, it will certainly prefer to see a barrier between its Xinjiang region and the Muslim-dominated areas of Central Asia which are breeding grounds for this ideology. As a result, Beijing will certainly prefer such a barrier because it is possible for both Russia and the United States to use Salafi and jihadist currents as a tool against China.
In the long term, the best solution is to help Afghanistan gain its new international status as an impartial country, end foreign intervention and occupation in Afghanistan, and acceptance of the new conditions in Afghanistan by regional and international rivals. Of course, this is a goal which cannot be achieved easily. If such solutions are not pursued, the last resort then may be disintegration of the country along ethnic lines, which of course, should not be a desirable option for any of the parties that are involved in Afghanistan. At the end of the day, maintenance of peace and stability in Afghanistan, as well as sustainable development of the country in all political, social, economic and cultural areas will need reduction of rivalries at domestic, regional and international levels.
Practically, USA is not withdrawing completely from Afghanistan and Pakistan. Without enough military presence, Washington is capable of controlling the regional allies directly. USA would wait for new troubles in Kabul and in the meantime would try to generate them so that more troops and terror goods could be reached Afghanistan and Pakistan. . Like India, Pakistan also doe not want NATO to quit Afghanistan, while USA relies fully on Pakistan’s willingness work for Pentagon if White House is generous in pumping in more weapons and money as service charges into Islamabad for helping in killing Pakistanis. Saudi led Arab nations use Pakistan to get more petrodollars form USA. ..
USA increasingly moves towards total militarism. World must understand the complex web of American deceit aimed at luring the American people and the rest of the world into accepting a military solution which threatens the future of humanity.
Against the background of US militarism policy, uncertainty could be the final word for Afghanistan now and this applies as far as to those Muslims nation that have been under USA/NATO occupation. Afghanistan has always been the target of enemy nations for specific but undisclosed reasons. The regime change enacted in Kabul as per the Neocons ideology is unlikely to be table or prosperous.